How the desk works
The Council has 21 research roles. Its 15-role voting roster is not 15 available voters: only seats with eligible LIVE cards can influence a call. Others remain in research quarantine. ODDS, CHEAP and FADE are already retired from votes; WARDEN, ORBIT and WIRE are non-voting pit crew. SATOSHI chairs the vote.
21 research roles · 15-role voting roster, not 15 available voters · 3 retired · 3 pit crew
Retired means the seat still has a public graded record, but its vote is not counted in the Chair.
Current 80¢ paper book · recorded fills held to official settlement · after Kalshi fees · since 2026-09-10 · through latest graded window · “¢” means cents per paper contract; net and average are after Kalshi fees.
Scope note: Arena, shadow Chair v2, and the 70¢ comparison use different or overlapping samples and are not additive to this canonical scorecard. See the scopes →
- step 1Read
The Council has 21 research roles. Its 15-role voting roster is not 15 available voters: only seats with eligible LIVE cards can influence a call. Others remain in research quarantine. ODDS, CHEAP and FADE are already retired from votes; WARDEN, ORBIT and WIRE are non-voting pit crew. They sit across five desks. STRUCTURE reads candles and swings. TAPE reads order flow and the Kalshi book. DERIVS reads funding, open interest and liquidations. BOOK reads the odds themselves. CONTEXT reads the clock and the regime. Each seat has one job.
- step 2Vote
The 15-role voting roster can submit UP, DOWN or WAIT reads; only eligible reads count toward SATOSHI. WARDEN, ORBIT and WIRE never count as votes; they provide guard and context signals to the Chair. ODDS, CHEAP and FADE are retired from votes — Retired means the seat still has a public graded record, but its vote is not counted in the Chair. A voting specialist that is not sure enough sits. SATOSHI weighs the eligible voting seats by their graded record and agreement. The score has to clear a bar or the desk waits. WAIT is the most common call, on purpose.
- step 3Grade
The window settles on Kalshi's official value. Voting-seat directional reads and the Chair's directional call are graded against the result; recorded paper positions are graded in cents after the fee. Pit-crew context remains non-voting. The books are public.
The apprentice desk teaches the same 15-minute read without requiring you to sit every window. The live floor grades 15-minute windows. A separate hourly book uses the same settlement family and keeps its own record.
What the words mean
A Council seat is one specialist role with one job. Fifteen roles belong to the voting roster; only eligible LIVE sources can vote; three are retired from votes; three are non-voting pit crew. The chair is SATOSHI, who weighs eligible voting seats and makes the call. A window is one 15-minute Kalshi market on Bitcoin: will the final-minute average finish above the strike or not. Paper means the desk books every call at the real ask, pays the real fee, and settles on the real result, without ever sending an order.
What it is not
It is not a trading bot, a signal service or advice. There is no account, no deposit and no live-trading arm. It is not affiliated with Kalshi; the desk reads Kalshi's public prices and official settlement values. It is Bitcoin only.
Why watch it
Because it argues out loud. Every call comes with the hypothesis, the evidence, the counter and the thing that would invalidate it, and every call is graded where you can see it. Hover or tap any dotted label on the floor for a one-line definition.