The hour on the record.
Same index. Longer window. Paper only.
Kalshi series KXBTCD · hourly book authority none · as of 2026-10-02 12:39:11 UTC.
to settlement at 9:00 AM Eastern · 2026-10-02 13:00:00 UTC · KXBTCD-26OCT0209
Hourly research authority: none. Live hourly rule: no. Sides on this ladder are YES, NO and WAIT. UP and DOWN belong to the 15-minute contract and are not used here.
Live window
Bitcoin price on Oct 2, 2026: yes pays if $86,800 or above.
A strike ladder, not the 15-minute UP/DOWN contract. This rung: $86,799.99. Settles on the CF Benchmarks value at the top of the hour. No hourly rule exists in this repo. The posture for this clock is WAIT until one is written, frozen and marked live. Authority: none.
The strike ladder
Each rung asks whether the official settlement value finishes at or above that strike. The bar is the model's probability; the hairline is what the market implies. Sides on this ladder are YES, NO and WAIT. UP and DOWN belong to the 15-minute contract and are not used here.
- $87,5001%/2%NO -0.6¢
- $87,4001%/2%NO -1.5¢
- $87,3003%/5%NO -0.3¢
- $87,2007%/9%NO +0.3¢
- $87,10012%/16%NO +1.6¢
- $87,00021%/27%NO +3.3¢
- $86,90032%/39%NO +4.4¢
- $86,800·44%/51%NO +3.5¢$86,759expected settlement · cfbenchmarks-brti
- $86,70058%/64%NO +3.0¢
- $86,60071%/77%NO +3.4¢
- $86,50081%/86%NO +2.9¢
- $86,40089%/94%NO +3.1¢
- $86,30094%/97%NO +0.9¢
- $86,20097%/99%NO -0.2¢
- $86,10099%/100%NO -0.8¢
Edge is measured against the real observed ask on that side, after the hourly fee. A rung with no quoted ask reads “no ask”: an unavailable side is never priced off a midpoint.
The read
Deterministic and versioned (hour-research-v1.0.0). The same frozen snapshot always produces the same read, and the model's authority is none.
NO 68% vs 62¢ ask. Expected settlement is $141 below the $86,900 strike with 21m remaining; after the 2¢ fee the model shows 4.4¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (0.24% / 0.37%). The settlement index sits $7 under exchange spot.
The model estimates the chance the official settlement value finishes at or above each strike, then compares that to the price actually quoted. It books nothing. The sentence above is built from the stored numbers alone — no language model supplies the probability or casts the YES/NO read.
Evidence board
Six families, each reporting what it could see and what it could not. A family with no feed says so; it does not fall back to a default.
Source: cfbenchmarks-brti, inside 15s by our receipt clock and by the vendor's own stamp. This is the value the contract settles on, not an exchange print and not a perpetual index. It sits $7 under exchange spot.
Expected settlement sits $41 below the nearest strike ($86,800). Distance alone is not an edge; it is scaled by volatility below.
One-sigma move over the 21 minutes remaining, from realized-1m-log (0.58% per hour). A wide distribution is a reason to sit, not a reason to guess.
5m -0.07% · 15m 0.24% · 1h 0.31% · 24h 2.96%. 15m and 1h point the same way. Range position 35%. Raw market returns only — no Council vote is read here.
The whole ladder arrived and every priced rung is scored and stored. 0 neighbouring rungs contradict the rest beyond tolerance; above 2 the ladder is called inconsistent and the model waits.
A side counts only when a real ask is quoted on it. A missing ask is unavailable, and a midpoint is never substituted for one. Spreads wider than 6¢ are refused as uneconomic.
Checkpoint timeline
The model records what it would have done at six fixed instants inside the hour. At most one of them becomes the hour's official shadow candidate, so one hour can never count as a dozen correlated positions.
- 45mfrozenYES 85¢ at $86,100 · model 95% · edge +8.9¢2026-10-02 12:15:17 UTC
- 30mfrozenNO 63¢ at $87,100 · model 2% · edge +32.9¢2026-10-02 12:30:17 UTC
- 20maheadnot reached yet
- 15maheadnot reached yet
- 10maheadnot reached yet
- 5maheadnot reached yet
Shadow record
This research is scored on its own. It never feeds the 15-minute Chair, the Council seats, the learner or the 15-minute paper book. Promotion needs hundreds of settled hourly windows, walk-forward evidence, calibration that beats the market, after-fee economics and a human decision. None of that has happened.
- 0–10%0%123942
- 10–20%10%987
- 20–30%20%710
- 30–40%31%625
- 40–50%43%561
- 50–60%57%598
- 60–70%67%580
- 70–80%83%742
- 80–90%90%998
- 90–100%100%141861
A calibrated model has the bar land on the hairline in every row. Rows with no graded rungs stay empty rather than borrow a neighbour’s rate.
- 45mmodel 0.007market 0.007distance 0.007
- 30mmodel 0.006market 0.006distance 0.006
- 20mmodel 0.004market 0.004distance 0.005
- 15mmodel 0.004market 0.004distance 0.004
- 10mmodel 0.003market 0.003distance 0.003
- 5mmodel 0.002market 0.002distance 0.002
The model has to beat both baselines prospectively — the market’s own implied probability and a naive distance-to-strike rule — before any promotion conversation is worth having.
Recent hours
Every settled hour the research has graded, sat or called, with the sentence the model wrote at the time. A WAIT is a completed outcome, not a missing row.
- 8:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 12:00:00 UTCWAIT — insufficient edgesettled $86,4275m checkpoint
WAIT with 5m remaining: a rung was cheap enough to consider but its after-fee edge did not clear the floor. Expected settlement $86,483.
- 7:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 11:00:00 UTCNO 15¢ · -16.0¢settled $86,29030m checkpoint
NO 21% vs 15¢ ask. Expected settlement is $155 above the $86,200 strike with 30m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 5.3¢ of edge. The settlement index sits $29 under exchange spot.
- 6:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 10:00:00 UTCYES 9¢ · -10.0¢settled $86,35045m checkpoint
YES 14% vs 9¢ ask. Expected settlement is $288 below the $86,500 strike with 45m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 4.5¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (-0.04% / -0.12%). The settlement index sits $0 over exchange spot.
- 5:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 09:00:00 UTCNO 16¢ · -17.0¢settled $86,21930m checkpoint
NO 23% vs 16¢ ask. Expected settlement is $180 above the $86,200 strike with 30m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 6.4¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (0.04% / 0.32%). The settlement index sits $8 under exchange spot.
- 4:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 08:00:00 UTCNO 9¢ · -10.0¢settled $86,04530m checkpoint
NO 14% vs 9¢ ask. Expected settlement is $219 above the $85,700 strike with 30m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 4.5¢ of edge. The settlement index sits $20 under exchange spot.
- 3:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 07:00:00 UTCYES 12¢ · -13.0¢settled $85,97045m checkpoint
YES 18% vs 12¢ ask. Expected settlement is $302 below the $86,200 strike with 45m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 4.6¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (-0.10% / -0.21%). The settlement index sits $8 under exchange spot.
- 2:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 06:00:00 UTCYES 11¢ · -12.0¢settled $85,97745m checkpoint
YES 27% vs 11¢ ask. Expected settlement is $340 below the $86,900 strike with 45m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 15.4¢ of edge. The settlement index sits $20 under exchange spot.
- 1:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 05:00:00 UTCYES 77¢ · +21.0¢settled $86,59930m checkpoint
YES 85% vs 77¢ ask. Expected settlement is $427 above the $86,400 strike with 30m remaining; after the 2¢ fee the model shows 5.7¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (1.53% / 1.48%). The settlement index sits $19 under exchange spot.
- 12:00 AM Eastern2026-10-02 04:00:00 UTCYES 13¢ · -14.0¢settled $85,49745m checkpoint
YES 20% vs 13¢ ask. Expected settlement is $309 below the $85,600 strike with 45m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 5.9¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (0.11% / 0.38%). The settlement index sits $28 under exchange spot.
- 11:00 PM Eastern2026-10-02 03:00:00 UTCYES 13¢ · +86.0¢settled $85,15430m checkpoint
YES 21% vs 13¢ ask. Expected settlement is $189 below the $85,100 strike with 30m remaining; after the 1¢ fee the model shows 6.5¢ of edge. The settlement index sits $23 under exchange spot.
- 10:00 PM Eastern2026-10-02 02:00:00 UTCNO 82¢ · +16.0¢settled $84,8935m checkpoint
NO 90% vs 82¢ ask. Expected settlement is $95 below the $84,900 strike with 5m remaining; after the 2¢ fee the model shows 5.9¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (0.29% / 0.27%). The settlement index sits $45 under exchange spot.
- 9:00 PM Eastern2026-10-02 01:00:00 UTCNO 79¢ · +19.0¢settled $84,76145m checkpoint
NO 86% vs 79¢ ask. Expected settlement is $176 below the $85,000 strike with 45m remaining; after the 2¢ fee the model shows 5.1¢ of edge. 15m/30m momentum agrees (0.05% / 0.08%). The settlement index sits $37 under exchange spot.
Score
Last 7 days of hourly windows, graded at the top of the hour, America/New_York. Hourly ledger only; no 15-minute row is counted here.
No hourly fills yet. The 15-minute floor is a different book.
164 hourly windows graded, 164 sat. No fill, so no win rate, no net and no drawdown to print.
One right WAIT
There is no hourly WAIT to show yet. A sit becomes evidence only when a recorded lean never filled and the other side paid.
One wrong fill
No real hourly fill has lost, because there is no hourly fill yet. Nothing is invented here.
The 15-minute floor and the hourly book are graded separately.