See the whole picture.
Specialist seats read price structure, order flow, derivatives, market odds, and context.
Explore the specialistsIndependent Bitcoin research · Paper only
Bitcoin every 15 minutes.
Every paper call gets graded.
This desk studies each 15-minute Bitcoin window, records hypothetical positions at the actual ask and fee, then checks the official result. It never trades.
Public prices · No live orders · Not affiliated with Kalshi.
Chair readWAIT
Paper positionNONE
Guided and Pro show the same live window and the same Chair decision. Pro only exposes more of the working.
Desk operational · QUIET. Ticking, grading and producer authority are healthy. WAIT is a real decision, not an outage.
Current Chair read
WAIT
Paper position: NONE · no paper position booked3 sources with selectable LIVE cards · 3 with seat authority available now. Confidence and entry gates still apply.
WAIT is the call. No seat has a directional read strong enough to speak, so nothing is booked. That is not an outage.
Last paper fill · 2026-10-02 10:15 UTC · paper UP at 81¢, -83.0¢ after fee · settled DOWN
Read the full decision- Bitcoin spot
- $86,394
- Window closes in
- 04:52
Canonical paper record
Every call →Current 80¢ paper book · recorded fills held to official settlement · after Kalshi fees · since 2026-09-10 · through latest graded window · “¢” means cents per paper contract; net and average are after Kalshi fees.
101
calls
88–13
W–L
+166.0¢
net after fees
+1.6¢
avg / call
-264.0¢
max drawdown
79%–92%
95% interval · n=101
Scope note: Arena, shadow Chair v2, and the 70¢ comparison use different or overlapping samples and are not additive to this canonical scorecard. See the scopes →
You can leave the Floor. Turn on a browser alert for SATOSHI’s next booked UP or DOWN paper call; quiet WAIT windows send nothing.
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Snapshot · 10:40:07 UTC · A Chair read, a booked paper position, and a feed/data outage are three different states.
The process
Every call has a case.
Every result has a record.
Know when to wait.
SATOSHI brings the evidence together. A directional read must also clear the paper book’s price and safety rules.
Open the floorLet the record speak.
Review recorded paper positions, fees, settlement results, and the experiments being tested alongside them.
Open the resultsTHE THINKING BEHIND THE FLOOR
Conviction needs context.
Not more noise. A clearer way to see
what matters, and what does not.
01
Satoshi / The Chair
The considered call.
One place to read the decision, its price, and the reasoning behind it.
Explore the role
The Chair brings the voting seats together. A directional read is not the same as a booked paper position: the price, rules and recorded fill still matter.
02
Wick / Candle seat · trainer
Context, made clear.
WICK reads candles on the floor and teaches the same read in training.
Explore the role
The guided floor explains the current window in plain language. Open training to learn the same closed-candle read WICK votes with on the live floor.
03
The Warden / The guardrails
Restraint is a decision.
Fresh inputs. Clear rules. And the discipline to say WAIT when the case is not there.
Explore the role
Data quality, market quotes and safety gates can prevent a paper call. Those checks reduce avoidable errors; they cannot eliminate losses or make a forecast certain.
Go deeper
The work behind the call.
Training / WICKEvidence before
Understand
Practice the candle read.
Study closed candles with WICK. Training is practice, separate from the Council’s paper book.
Open training ↗Research / The LabEvidence before
improvement.
Follow prospective experiments and compare candidates against a frozen control.
Explore the research Council / The storyUnderstand
the desk.
Read how specialist research, SATOSHI’s decision, and the paper record fit together.
Open the storyThe Council collection
Stillness is a decision.
The ideas behind the floor, made to wear and keep.