Questions people ask

The Council has 21 research roles. Its 15-role voting roster is not 15 available voters: only seats with eligible LIVE cards can influence a call. Others remain in research quarantine. ODDS, CHEAP and FADE are already retired from votes; WARDEN, ORBIT and WIRE are non-voting pit crew. Each seat has one job: WICK reads candles, TAPE reads the Kalshi book, CARRY reads funding, CLOCK reads the session, and so on. The 15-role voting roster can submit UP, DOWN or WAIT reads; only eligible reads count toward SATOSHI. The three pit-crew seats never count as votes. WARDEN, ORBIT and WIRE provide guard and context signals. ODDS, CHEAP and FADE are retired from votes. Retired means the seat still has a public graded record, but its vote is not counted in the Chair. SATOSHI chairs the vote.

Because a 15-minute Bitcoin window is close to a coin flip most of the time, and the price already knows it. The chair only calls a side when the seats agree hard enough to be worth the ask plus the fee. WAIT is the honest answer more often than not, and the books show what happens when it speaks.

Open the Books at /books. Every result is labeled by scope: today, this week, the current floor era, or all-time. Net cents include the recorded entry and Kalshi fee, and the archived 80¢ floor trial is shown beside the 70¢ shadow book on the same windows. The canonical paper record on that page prints calls, W–L, net after fees, average per call, max drawdown, and a 95% interval with the scope on the block. Arena and shadow Chair v2 are different scopes. It is a record, not a promised edge.

The owner rolled back the normal-mode restrictions added after the four September 15 losses. The new policy applies only to complete market windows opening at or after September 30, 2026, 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. Central); a later process restart can move that boundary to the next complete window. A new paper entry still needs the current Chair to clear its bar and hard gates, at least two speaking seats in a strict majority, fresh feeds, a real 80¢-plus ask, a tight spread, resting size and positive main-model edge after fees. Normal mode no longer adds a separate 3–10 minute band, distinct-family veto, 3¢ minimum, settlement-index veto or multi-frame delay. There is no daily call quota and one loss does not automatically stop the desk. If the Central day's net after fees reaches −100¢, the existing tighter checks stay on for the rest of that day: four healthy supporters from three groups, no opposition, 3–10 minutes remaining, at least 5¢ main-model edge, more than 2¢ settlement-index margin, and five observations over at least twenty seconds. Profit protection and durable one-position-per-window risk reservations are unchanged. These paper rules do not guarantee wins; Lab research stays separate.

The book needs a real ask at 80¢ or above and every active booking check must still pass when it pays. Reaching 80¢ alone is not permission to fill. The shared desk shows WAIT when the current Chair/team, economics, feeds, quote or daily risk blocks entry. A read and a booked position remain separate records, and an existing position stays locked until settlement. The 70¢ shadow comparison is research and never authorizes a fill.

Every call is booked at the real ask, charged the real Kalshi fee, held to the real settlement, and graded in cents. No order is ever sent. The ledger, the seats' records and the chair's books are all paper.

No. There is no account, no deposit, no wallet and no live-trading arm. The Arena lets you make your own paper calls under a callsign; those are paper too.

The desk is built around one market: Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contract, which settles on the average of the final minute's sixty BRTI prints. Every seat, every grade and every replay assumes that window. There is no ETH and no basket.

There are two layers. A seat status says how the chair hears a specialist: LIVE retains normal seat authority, subject to rule eligibility; UNCALIBRATED is still earning history; MUTED is owner-silenced; FADED is discounted; FOLDED combines correlated evidence or removes a standalone context read; it is not separate entry support. DOWN does not vote; VETO is a hard block; INVERT is retired and never flips a side. A skill status says where one rule sits: CANDIDATE is proposed, SHADOW is being evaluated, LIVE is eligible to speak once its guards pass, and BENCH is parked. WAIT and SIT are current-window reads, not status levels.

Spot from public exchange feeds, the book and settlement values from Kalshi's public API, derivatives from public venue endpoints. When a feed goes stale the desk says so on the strip; a seat that cannot see sits.

No. The desk reads Kalshi's public prices and official settlement values to grade itself. It has no relationship with Kalshi and places no orders anywhere.