The Board

2026-10-01 in the lab: feed open, BRTI 81216 ticks and 8051498 events recorded since the last restart · stale quotes: 5929 fair-value shocks ≥2¢ (5655 true jumps within 1s, the rest drift), 2199 with edge after fee; still hittable at 150ms 80%, at 500ms 64%; 784 were taken by someone else; mean net edge if hit at 150ms 11.4¢, fair 500ms later +11.8¢ vs price paid · what those would have made at settlement: jumps hit at 150ms -3.2¢ per contract over 1490 settled; drift (model vs book) -0.2¢ per contract over 274 settled · settlement rule check: 60s-average rule agreed with Kalshi's result on 86/86 windows, last-tick rule 82/86; our average matched Kalshi's official value within 5¢ on 3/86 (mean gap 44.0¢), Kalshi's streamed average on 3 · basis vs BRTI: Binance +3.7 bps (|+3.7|), Coinbase -0.3 bps (|+0.8|) over 41916 samples

2026-10-01 on the floor: 88 windows graded · 7 calls (6W/1L), net +11.0¢ after fees · best seat INDEX 3/3, toughest STRIKE 13/15 · shadow chair v2: 0 calls, net +0.0¢ vs chair +11.0¢ · sharpest seats by Brier: DRIFT 0.17, CHAIN 0.18 · v2 promotion gate 1/3: samples 2466/300 · calls 85/40 · Brier trails market · net -672¢ · arena: 1 player, 1 call, net +2¢ · top Satoshi Admin +2¢ · SWEEP flags: WICK dead, STREAK dead, EXHAUST dead, PULSE dead, TAPE dead, WHALE dead, VEL dead, CARRY dead, CHAIN gold, CASCADE dead, VOLT dead, ODDS dead, CHEAP dead, FADE dead · LEDGER: no vote pattern clears the 1050/450 walk-forward test yet

2026-09-30 in the lab: feed open, BRTI 43288 ticks and 3924311 events recorded since the last restart · stale quotes: 6917 fair-value shocks ≥2¢ (6910 true jumps within 1s, the rest drift), 2446 with edge after fee; still hittable at 150ms 79%, at 500ms 63%; 918 were taken by someone else; mean net edge if hit at 150ms 3.4¢, fair 500ms later +3.9¢ vs price paid · what those would have made at settlement: jumps hit at 150ms -7.3¢ per contract over 1923 settled; drift (model vs book) -0.2¢ per contract over 7 settled · settlement rule check: 60s-average rule agreed with Kalshi's result on 96/96 windows, last-tick rule 93/96; our average matched Kalshi's official value within 5¢ on 9/96 (mean gap 41.8¢), Kalshi's streamed average on 9 · basis vs BRTI: Binance +5.1 bps (|+5.1|), Coinbase -0.5 bps (|+0.8|) over 42264 samples

2026-09-30 on the floor: 96 windows graded · no fills — the council sat · best seat INDEX 11/11, toughest STRIKE 4/5 · shadow chair v2: 0 calls, net +0.0¢ vs chair +0.0¢ · sharpest seats by Brier: DRIFT 0.10, CHAIN 0.19 · v2 promotion gate 1/3: samples 2378/300 · calls 85/40 · Brier trails market · net -672¢ · SWEEP flags: WICK dead, STREAK dead, EXHAUST dead, PULSE dead, TAPE dead, WHALE dead, VEL dead, CARRY dead, CASCADE dead, VOLT dead, ODDS dead, CHEAP dead, FADE dead · LEDGER: no vote pattern clears the 1050/450 walk-forward test yet

2026-09-29 in the lab: feed open, BRTI 54175 ticks and 4638439 events recorded since the last restart · stale quotes: 8174 fair-value shocks ≥2¢ (8174 true jumps within 1s, the rest drift), 2801 with edge after fee; still hittable at 150ms 81%, at 500ms 64%; 1166 were taken by someone else; mean net edge if hit at 150ms 3.6¢, fair 500ms later +3.8¢ vs price paid · what those would have made at settlement: jumps hit at 150ms -0.0¢ per contract over 2254 settled; drift (model vs book) no settled sample yet · settlement rule check: 60s-average rule agreed with Kalshi's result on 94/94 windows, last-tick rule 88/94; our average matched Kalshi's official value within 5¢ on 10/93 (mean gap 35.1¢), Kalshi's streamed average on 10 (1 windows had partial index data) · basis vs BRTI: Binance +3.6 bps (|+3.6|), Coinbase -0.2 bps (|+0.7|) over 40968 samples

2026-09-29 on the floor: 96 windows graded · no fills — the council sat · shadow chair v2: 0 calls, net +0.0¢ vs chair +0.0¢ · sharpest seats by Brier: DRIFT 0.14, CLOCK 0.46 · v2 promotion gate 1/3: samples 2282/300 · calls 85/40 · Brier trails market · net -672¢ · SWEEP flags: WICK dead, STREAK dead, EXHAUST dead, PULSE dead, TAPE dead, WHALE dead, VEL dead, CARRY dead, CHAIN dead, CASCADE dead, VOLT dead, ODDS dead, STRIKE dead, CHEAP dead, FADE dead · LEDGER: no vote pattern clears the 1050/450 walk-forward test yet