Results, on the record.
Explore the paper books: recorded positions, settlement outcomes, and fee-adjusted results. Every period is scoped and labeled.
Current 80¢ paper book · recorded fills held to official settlement · after Kalshi fees · since 2026-09-10 · through latest graded window · “¢” means cents per paper contract; net and average are after Kalshi fees.
Scope note: Arena, shadow Chair v2, and the 70¢ comparison use different or overlapping samples and are not additive to this canonical scorecard.
Recent windows
3 filled · sit runs collapsed
| Close | Side | Result | Net after fee | Replay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Oct 2, 5:15 AM | UP | DOWN | -83.0¢ | replay |
| Fri, Oct 2, 2:00 AM | UP | UP | +16.0¢ | replay |
| Thu, Oct 1, 10:00 PM | UP | UP | +17.0¢ | replay |
28 windows in the last 90 days have no recorded result. They are outages, not sits, and they are not in the totals.
Show missing closes · 28 dated outages
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LAST WINDOW
THE BOOKS
Overlapping periods, not separate books. The floor period starts Tue 3:47 PM and includes the later 80¢ trial. Trial results are already in these totals; the shadow comparison is never added. Today uses America/Chicago; row times use America/Chicago.
THE 80¢ FLOOR TRIAL · archived Sep 10–Sep 15 · 442 windows
This comparison ended before selective mode. New selective results are recorded separately. Same windows, two floors. The live book pays 80¢ or better; the shadow book counts what the old 70¢ floor would have taken, and books nothing. It declined 11 fills the old floor would have made. A higher floor wins more often for a smaller prize, so its breakeven is higher too — read the net, not the win rate.
PROCESS SCORECARD
Sits is how often the chair passed. Confluence is how hard the fills cleared the bar; floor kept is the share that honoured the floor in force when they closed — 80¢ during the trial, 70¢ before it. Max drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough on paper. Every call is graded at its own 15-minute close.
THE CURVE · 14 DAYS
DID THE PRICE TELL THE TRUTH?
grey = price paid · gold = breakeven after the fee · green or red = the shelf cleared it or fell short