Satoshi’s CouncilBITCOIN RESEARCH

VEL (LAG)

Spot vs YES mid. If Bitcoin already moved and YES hasn't, the book may still be cheap.

Directional Lean: 50 · NeutralNo qualifying directional read right now.Authority unverifiedFull meter Directional Lean shows research direction and intensity. It is not a probability and not a SATOSHI call.

No Chair row yet — research read only.
VEL LIVE LAG
spot vs YES mid
0.4s
LIVEspot lead vs YES mid
DIRECTIONAL LEAN50 · Neutral
Authority unverifiedResearch read: NEUTRALStatus: SITStrength: 0Updated: 2026-10-02 12:08:01 UTC · feed 0.4sNo qualifying directional read right now.no meaningful lead → WAIT
VEL: Directional Lean 50 of 100, neutral, research read NEUTRAL. Sitting — no direction read.

Directional Lean shows research direction and intensity. It is not a probability and not a SATOSHI call.

Research lean
WAIT
Confidence
0
Average cents
—
0 graded legs
Calls
0
Calibration
0%
0/700 observations
Selected skill
SIT · SIT

Dotted underlines open definitions: hover, focus, or tap.

phase
mid · — left
hypothesis
lead -62 bps need 4 · FADE
evidence
  • lead -62 bps
  • meaningful true
counter
none printed
decision
WAIT · 0 conf · no meaningful lead → WAIT
invalidate if
lag closes or spot reverses
skill used
SIT
thresh
—
shadow / paper
shadow VEL.lead_fade WAIT

Record

right 0/8 · 0% · Wilson floor 0%
avg -7.0¢ · 19 calls · now WAIT
last twenty graded reads, green right, red wrong

Skills

  • spot_leadBENCHretired rule56/923Is spot leading YES mid?
  • lag_catch_sitSHADOWungradedHas YES already followed the spot lead?
  • lead_fadeSHADOWungradedSpot lead still printed but the last 1m bar flipped against it?
see it on the TAPE desk

Every seat is graded on Kalshi's official settlement value after each 15-minute window, on paper. A read is right when the window finished on its side. Nothing here places a live trade. Not financial advice.

Open the floorSee the current decision and its supporting evidence.