Satoshi’s CouncilBITCOIN RESEARCH

EXHAUST (XH)

Looks for a move that has run too far in the last hour: climax volume, RSI divergence, failed push, an inside bar. Every pattern waits for a run past a tunable threshold (0.7% to start). Fade, don't chase.

Directional Lean: 50 · NeutralNo qualifying directional read right now.Authority unverifiedFull meter Directional Lean shows research direction and intensity. It is not a probability and not a SATOSHI call.

No Chair row yet — research read only.
EXHAUST LIVE XH
1h + 5m flip
0.1s
seeing
DIRECTIONAL LEAN50 · Neutral
Authority unverifiedResearch read: NEUTRALStatus: SITStrength: 0Updated: 2026-10-02 12:09:25 UTC · feed 0.1sNo qualifying directional read right now.need 1h run + extreme + 5m flip → WAIT
EXHAUST: Directional Lean 50 of 100, neutral, research read NEUTRAL. Sitting — no direction read.

Directional Lean shows research direction and intensity. It is not a probability and not a SATOSHI call.

Research lean
WAIT
Confidence
0
Average cents
—
0 graded legs
Calls
0
Calibration
0%
0/700 observations
Selected skill
SIT · SIT

Dotted underlines open definitions: hover, focus, or tap.

phase
mid · — left
hypothesis
1h DN -0.02% · WATCH
evidence
  • extreme false
  • flip false
  • RSI 52
counter
none printed
decision
WAIT · 0 conf · need 1h run + extreme + 5m flip → WAIT
invalidate if
5m resumes the 1h direction
skill used
SIT
thresh
—
shadow / paper
none

Record

right 1/10 · 10% · Wilson floor 2%
avg -3.1¢ · 78 calls · now WAIT
last twenty graded reads, green right, red wrong

Skills

  • 1h_run_5m_flipSHADOW9/10Fade a 1h run after a 5m flip at the extreme?
  • climax_wickSHADOW1/11Blow-off: 1h run at extreme + 5m wick against + volume?
  • rsi_divSHADOWungraded1h still running while 5m RSI has rolled over?
  • failed_pushSHADOW0/19Second 5m push at the extreme failed to make a new high/low?
  • ema_cross_againstSHADOW2/125m EMA8/21 stacked against a 1h run?
  • inside_after_runSHADOWungraded5m inside bar after a 1h run?
see it on the STRUCTURE desk

Every seat is graded on Kalshi's official settlement value after each 15-minute window, on paper. A read is right when the window finished on its side. Nothing here places a live trade. Not financial advice.

Open the floorSee the current decision and its supporting evidence.