Satoshi’s CouncilBITCOIN RESEARCH

CASCADE (LQ)

Each venue is converted with its contract type and multiplier first (OKX linear 0.01 BTC × 1, Binance/Bybit linear 1 × 1). Then USD notional in the same 15-minute window. Primary = richest book. Backup in the source line is confirmation, not extra dollars. Empty feeds fall back to a volume+OI PROXY.

Directional Lean: 50 · NeutralNo qualifying directional read right now.Authority unverifiedFull meter Directional Lean shows research direction and intensity. It is not a probability and not a SATOSHI call.

No Chair row yet — research read only.
CASCADE LIVE LQ
liq / PROXY
20.0s
LIVEliq okx linear 0.01×1 15m
DIRECTIONAL LEAN50 · Neutral
Authority unverifiedResearch read: NEUTRALStatus: SITStrength: 0Updated: 2026-10-02 12:08:01 UTC · feed 20.0sNo qualifying directional read right now.need real liq prints (else vol/OI proxy) → WAIT
CASCADE: Directional Lean 50 of 100, neutral, research read NEUTRAL. Sitting — no direction read.

Directional Lean shows research direction and intensity. It is not a probability and not a SATOSHI call.

Research lean
WAIT
Confidence
0
Average cents
—
0 graded legs
Calls
0
Calibration
0%
0/700 observations
Selected skill
SIT · SIT

Dotted underlines open definitions: hover, focus, or tap.

phase
mid · — left
hypothesis
REAL flush UP
evidence
  • long $887 / short $17398 n 8
  • src okx linear 0.01×1
  • cluster true
counter
none printed
decision
WAIT · 0 conf · need real liq prints (else vol/OI proxy) → WAIT
invalidate if
liq prints stop and vol/OI unwind
skill used
SIT
thresh
—
shadow / paper
shadow CASCADE.proxy_flush UP 59¢ · shadow CASCADE.force_cluster UP 59¢

Record

right 369/525 · 70% · Wilson floor 66%
avg -0.5¢ · 1794 calls · now WAIT
last twenty graded reads, green right, red wrong

Skills

  • proxy_flushSHADOW1228/1736Real liquidation prints in the last 10 minutes with a 5m push?
  • early_flush_sitSHADOWungradedOI flushing before volume spikes?
  • vol_no_oiSHADOWungradedVol spike + return but OI not flushing (not forced)?
  • exhaustSHADOW2/5Forced-flow printed then last 1m wicked against?
  • force_clusterSHADOW186/226Three+ real liquidation prints with a 5m push?
see it on the DERIVS desk

Every seat is graded on Kalshi's official settlement value after each 15-minute window, on paper. A read is right when the window finished on its side. Nothing here places a live trade. Not financial advice.

Open the floorSee the current decision and its supporting evidence.